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Survivor Bias

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Prompt

Survivor bias

Revised prompt

A visual representation of survivor bias, featuring a WWII aircraft with bullet holes primarily on the wings and fuselage, accompanied by analysts examining the aircraft. Additionally, include a contrast showing an aircraft with bullet holes in different areas that did not return, depicted as a shadow or ghost image to emphasize the missing data. The background should be a military airfield with other aircraft and hangars in the distance.

Notes

ChatGPT correctly explained survivor bias to me

Survivor bias, also known as survivorship bias, is a logical error that occurs when concentrating on the people or things that "survived" a process while overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to false conclusions in various fields, including business, research, and history.

It quoted as an example for

Selective Attention, which involves focussing on successful cases and ignoring unsuccessful ones, leading to skewed perceptions.

World War II Aircraft: During WWII, military analysts studied the planes that returned from missions to determine where to add armor. They initially focused on the bullet holes on returning aircraft. However, they realized the planes hit in areas without bullet holes (those that did not return) were the ones that needed more armor.

I can't tell from the picture which bullet hole caused the damage in the ghost plane.

Maybe it was one of the seven that missed!

Notice that the plane by the hangar hasn't got any holes in it whatsoever.


Published:

Last updated:

28th June 2024